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Christmas has come and gone for the Colorado Avalanche, however New Year’s Eve is simply round the nook, which implies that it’s time for New Year’s resolutions – everybody’s favourite exercise round the holidays.
On the floor, there doesn’t look like a lot for the Avalanche to wish to vary heading into 2024 and the again half of the 2023-24 season. The staff owns a 22-11-3 document, which is nice for 47 factors and first place in the Central Division, although their .653 factors proportion (PTS%) locations them sixth in the Western Conference.
Going somewhat deeper, it turns into readily obvious that the Avalanche have issues to work on and resolutions to decide to if they’re to make a deep playoff run come the spring. Finding methods to extend offense outdoors of their superstars, enjoying extra accountable hockey with the lead, and solidifying their goaltending scenario are all points that the membership should deal with.
Resolution #1: Find the Stars Some Offensive Support
After getting off to a sluggish begin to the 2023-24 season (by his extraordinarily excessive requirements), Avalanche famous person Nathan MacKinnon has pressured himself into the Hart Trophy dialogue together with his play over the previous two months.
The 28-year-old middle scored six targets and 14 factors in 12 video games over the first month of play, rating third on the staff in factors. In 24 video games since Nov. 10, MacKinnon has occupied a totally completely different stratosphere. He rode a now-broken 19-game level streak to the tune of 13 targets and 42 factors to convey his full-season rely to 19 targets and 56 factors in 36 video games. That clip represents a 43-goal, 127-point tempo over 82 video games, the latter of which approaches his career-best single-season scoring charge.
MacKinnon at the moment leads the NHL with 37 assists and sits two factors behind Nikita Kucherov for the Art Ross Trophy lead with another recreation performed than the Tampa Bay Lightning’s star winger. The Russian has made his stamp on each the Hart and Art Ross races already, so it is going to be fascinating to see how that battle pans out in 2024.
Elsewhere, Mikko Rantanen (eleventh in the NHL in factors) and Cale Makar (leads all defensemen in factors per recreation) have pulled their weight on the offensive finish of the ice as the remaining two-thirds of considered one of the league’s greatest trios. At this level, the problem is what’s (or isn’t) behind them on the depth chart.
Other than winger Valeri Nichushkin, who has additionally produced at a career-best tempo with 16 targets and 34 factors in 34 video games, the Avalanche are getting subsequent to nothing from the remainder of their lineup. Devon Toews (20 factors in 36 video games) and Ross Colton (17 in 35) are the subsequent highest scorers, and Ryan Johansen (14 in 36) and Bowen Byram (12 in 36) have additionally struggled mightily in this division.
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While the return of forechecking winger Artturi Lehkonen (eight factors in 12 video games at the time of his damage) will assist immensely, it’ll take greater than a single participant to show the tides.
The Avalanche are at the mercy of the NHL’s wage cap guidelines in their search for reinforcements, with the staff already over the long-term injured reserve (LTIR) threshold. Any potential transfer must be made with Lehkonen and his $4.5 million cap hit in thoughts, making it more likely that Johansen ($4 million) will probably be concerned as a wage makeweight in any future deal. Calgary Flames middle Elias Lindholm has been one candidate floated round as a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA), and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him donning an Avalanche sweater come the commerce deadline.
Resolution #2: Stop Blowing Leads
In their first recreation after the temporary Christmas break, the Avalanche blew a four-goal lead in opposition to the Arizona Coyotes, the newest in an unsettling development for a staff with aspirations of successful the Stanley Cup.
Despite main the NHL in whole wins after main at the finish of the first interval (13), Colorado doesn’t lead the league in win proportion when main after one; as an alternative, the staff ranks 18th (.765) for the marketing campaign.
The discrepancy is because of blown leads like the one in opposition to the Coyotes, the place the Avalanche are tied for the most extra time losses after main after one (three) and have 4 losses of any type after main after a interval (fifth).
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The Avalanche have additionally allowed the sixth-most goals in the second interval (43), often throwing away robust showings in the opening body (seventh with 37 targets for).
I ought to word that for all of their points with holding leads, the Avalanche have additionally scored the most targets in the third interval (48), in order that they have the firepower to dig themselves out of bother and stage comebacks with some regularity. That’s not a development that’s ever been sustainable over the long run, and the staff ought to give attention to buckling down when required reasonably than counting on their superstars to bail them out.
Resolution #3: Start Prosvetov More Often
Of the three resolutions listed in this text, this one is the most actionable. Barring damage, there may be nothing stopping head coach Jared Bednar from handing backup goaltender Ivan Prosvetov extra begins as the season progresses. In reality, Alexandar Georgiev was given a short break from playing games earlier in December, so the precedent for this plan of action exists.
Given how Georgiev carried out in his first season with the Avalanche, that this decision is even on the desk is a worrying growth. The 27-year-old goalie made the second-most begins in the league final season (62), tied for the league lead in wins (40) and ranked Tenth amongst certified netminders (not less than 10 video games performed) with a .919 save proportion (SV%). By all measures, the staff ought to have discovered their long-term starter.
Yet, Georgiev has struggled to duplicate his fantastic kind in 2023-24. He’s as soon as once more tied for the lead in begins (28) and owns the most wins (18), however his particular person numbers should not as glowing this time round. Among the 71 goalies to have made 5 appearances this season, the Avalanche’s starter ranks thirty fifth in goals-against common (GAA), forty first in SV% (.900), and thirty fifth in targets saved above anticipated (GSAx).
The Avalanche are comfortably a top-half staff in the NHL by pictures, possibilities, and anticipated targets in opposition to per 60 minutes in all conditions, so it’s not as if the protection is enjoying notably poorly in entrance of Georgiev. They want greater than what he’s supplied thus far, and Prosvetov ought to be used to spell him way more usually in the second half of the season.
Prosvetov has made 10 appearances in 2023-24 and owns a document of 4-3-1 with a 2.84 GAA (twenty eighth amongst certified goalies), a .906 SV% (thirtieth), and saved 3.4 targets above anticipated (thirty fourth). He’s nowhere close to the NHL’s greatest at the place, however he’s been steadier than Colorado’s present high choice and may see elevated utilization if for no different motive however to provide Georgiev a break. He appears worn down, and the calendar hasn’t even turned to 2024.
The Avalanche are scoring the second-most targets per recreation in the league this season (3.61), in order that they have the offensive expertise to beat common or below-average goaltending. They’re not even receiving that from Georgiev, and whereas I’ve confidence that he’ll discover his footing earlier than lengthy, there’s no motive to let Prosvetov sit inactive for so long as he has till now.
2024 Could Be a Special Year for the Avalanche
The irritating side of the Avalanche’s season so far is that, regardless of the authentic issues with their play, they’ve the makings of a Stanley Cup-calibre roster when totally wholesome.
The first- and Tenth-overall groups in the total NHL standings are separated by a mere six factors, a testomony to the league’s desire to promote parity with reference to postseason competitors.
It’s not tough to see the Avalanche shore up just a few areas through commerce or by ready for key contributors to get wholesome and separate themselves from the remainder of the Western Conference contenders come playoff time. It’s essential to keep in mind that each staff will expertise the peaks and valleys of an 82-game season, even the one which finally ends up successful the Cup.
So, what do you suppose 2024 will convey for the Avalanche? Another postseason disappointment? A return to the high of the Stanley Cup mountain? Let me know in the feedback!
Data courtesy of MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
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