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Like The Magnificent One, Yags, Sid the Kid, and Gino in Pittsburgh, Auston Matthews is equally revered and aptly named by followers of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The moniker AM34 appears like a fighter jet, and in the event you’ve ever seen Matthews easily skate the puck down the center of the ice, shift onto the left facet, and launch his distinctive and devastating wrist/snapshot, you’ll perceive why that nickname works.
It’s additionally one in all many the reason why Pittsburgh Penguins common supervisor (and former Maple Leafs common supervisor) Kyle Dubas shall be prepared if Matthews turns into an unrestricted free agent (UFA) subsequent summer season.
Dubas and Matthews have a lengthy connection and a shut relationship (from “With Treliving hire, Leafs’ Brendan Shanahan is gambling that team can reach next level,” The Athletic, June 1, 2023). Matthews and his administration staff have a robust consolation degree in working with Dubas. This would enable Pittsburgh to have a higher probability than different groups to signal Matthews…if he’s obtainable, after all.
For the Penguins, Matthews would characterize an instantaneous retool that might be the singular key piece to protecting Pittsburgh aggressive for so long as Matthews is keen to signal for. Signing the Maple Leafs star could be simpler than counting on one other lottery victory and would characterize the uncommon instance of an unrestricted free agent who is definitely price the price. A price that might be record-setting.
There are so many juicy parts to this idea, the place does one start? Since my focus is on the enterprise finish, let’s begin there with the wage cap.
In the summer season of 2024, in accordance with CapPleasant, the Penguins can have underneath contract:
- Nine forwards
- Five defensemen
- One goalie
- One bought-out participant (useless cap hit)
That’s 15 skaters and one buyout, representing a complete cap hit of $70,191,842. In the summer season of 2018, everybody was screaming how dangerous Jack Johnson’s signing was. Who know that six years later we might be viewing it from the prism of how his buyout would doubtlessly have an effect on Pittsburgh’s capability to bid for the companies of one of many three greatest gamers in the world come 2024. Yet right here we’re.
The wage cap for the 2024-25 season is projected to be $87,500,000, which implies Pittsburgh can have $17,308,158 to signal a minimum of 5 extra gamers: three forwards, one defenseman, and one goalie.
If Matthews makes it to the UFA market subsequent summer season, he’ll command north of $15 million per season, and I can see the quantity being as excessive as $16.5 million, for as a few years as he needs. Remember, he signed a five-year deal popping out of his rookie contract that walked him on to the choice of absolute hockey freedom. Matthews may simply signal a three-to-five-year contract that permits him to signal a long-term deal in his late 20s-early 30s for an excellent increased annual common worth (AAV).
Now, I can see a few of you performing some fast math and exclaiming “Hey! That doesn’t leave the Penguins enough money to fill out their roster! You’re a fool!” Well now, don’t head to the feedback part simply but, as a result of we’re getting there.
But first, right here’s a take a look at why Matthews will command that sort of wage and why he’s completely price each penny.
In a world the place Connor McDavid exists, Matthews simply won the 2022 NHL MVP Award. There.
Wait, you need extra? Okay.
While Matthews was setting records with the US National Team Development Program, he was each bit as centered on his defensive recreation. While enjoying his draft 12 months in Switzerland as a 17-year-old, he learned the pro game and improved his defensive play underneath Stanley Cup-winning head coach Marc Crawford. Coming into the NHL underneath a curmudgeonly grinder like Mike Babcock additionally helped, as Matthews obtained to additional hone his defensive acumen underneath a head coach who demanded duty throughout all 200 toes of the ice.
This is the place the attention check and analytics align. Watching him play, we are able to see Matthews deep in his personal zone, successful battles alongside the tip boards, lifting sticks to steal pucks, and main his staff out of the D-zone into the offensive zone as a consequence. This means he has a lot of takeaways, a robust defensive zone exit proportion, and is without doubt one of the the reason why his defensive analytics are good throughout the board.
If you been following the Connor Bedard hype, one of many notes you’ll probably learn is how Bedard’s shot and his launch are so distinctive. It is claimed that no gamers in the present NHL who can shoot for the way in which he does in phrases of method. Many have additionally argued that Bedard and Matthews are neck-and-neck in phrases of their potential in their draft season. Before Bedard, Matthews was the one who had a shot not like anybody else, and admittedly, he nonetheless does. His model of a toe curl into a wrist shot is a fashionable tackle one other left-handed monster’s wrist shot, Mark Messier. And like Messier, when he’s wholesome, Matthews can rip it from anyplace and rating, even when the goalie is aware of it’s coming.
Ironically, that is additionally the place the danger with Matthews comes in.
The Hand Injuries
Matthews has suffered a multitude of hand and wrist accidents the previous few seasons, together with playing much of 2020-21 with a wrist harm, which he then had surgery on through the offseason. He additionally performed via a hand harm for most of final season (from ‘Auston Matthews opens up about the hand injury that’s hampered him,’ The Athletic, March 15, 2023). Playing harm, these accidents have affected his shot and thus his capability to transform anticipated targets into precise targets, as his targets per 60 (minutes of ice time) dropped from a career-high of 1.94 every of the previous two seasons to a near-career low of 1.36 in 2022-23.
That being stated, having performed harm all of final season, Matthews nonetheless scored 40 targets and 85 factors in 74 video games and added 11 factors in 11 postseason video games. If that’s his ground, the Pens would nonetheless have one of many ten greatest gamers in the world for a few years.
Clearing Cap Space
Heading over as soon as once more to CapPleasant (who needs to be sponsoring this text from all of the play they get), we all know that Pittsburgh can have three unrestricted free brokers subsequent summer season. They are:
Jake Guentzel, Left-wing
Jeff Carter, Center
Chad Ruhwedel, Right-shot Defense
In this universe, Pittsburgh didn’t commerce for Erik Karlsson as a result of that they had the foresight to know that subsequent summer season is the time to assault, and Mikael Granlund continues to be on the staff. With just one 12 months left on his contract, Granlund shall be a lot simpler to commerce to a tanking staff with a second-round draft choose in return for a mysterious future consideration. With no commerce safety, Granlund’s gone. The Penguins then have simply over $22.3 million to play with, and immediately this plan is feasible.
Signing Matthews and Filling Out the Roster
Unlike most gamers, Mattthews selected to solely signal a five-year contract popping out of his entry-level deal. Using historical past to tell on his administration staff’s potential decision-making course of, Matthews may effectively goal for a shorter contract. A four-year deal would enable Matthews to be a UFA once more at age 30, probably nonetheless in the tail finish of his prime. Should he select that, the AAV shall be decrease, however, in this case, decrease continues to be a giant quantity, as he’ll simply be in the $15 million plus vary – even at that quantity he can have a litany of suitors. Should he select the Penguins, let’s say that Matthews indicators a four-year, $61.2 million deal. That’s $15.3 million per season. That leaves the staff with barely greater than $7 million and 4 roster spots to fill.
Suffice it to say that Matthews would exchange Jake Guentzel.
With AM34 in and Guentzel, Carter, and Granlund out, the remaining spots to fill embody:
- Third-line left wing
- Third-line ring wing
- Fourth-line middle or proper wing
- Third pair left or proper defenseman
- Backup goaltender
For simplicity’s sake, I’ll begin with the backup goalie, who shall be on the league-minimum contract and can help the very well-paid and clearly number-one goalie, Tristan Jarry.
As robust as the highest finish of the skating UFA market is subsequent summer season, the backup goaltending crop is each bit the alternative. It’s a lengthy checklist of goalies which you could solely hope have a dangerous season, or washed-up starters and backups attempting to hold on. So, it needs to be no shock that I might goal a goalie who shall be 39 years previous subsequent summer season and 40 through the season, but nonetheless has some magic in his glove. Yes, it’s time for Marc-André Fleury to come back house.
Fleury needs to be the backup to rising star Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota with the Wild this season and shouldn’t should put as a lot put on on the proverbial tires. This ought to go away sufficient in the tank for him to play another 12 months in Pittsburgh. As shut as he’s to retirement, a robust Penguins staff may very well be sufficient for him to take another run and go away each Pittsburgh and the NHL on his phrases. If the Pens miss out on Fleury, I might suggest they discover a prime goalie throughout the pond in his late 20s, somebody with potential who’s keen to signal for the minimal and cross your laces that he adjusts to the small ice shortly. Otherwise, it’s slim pickings.
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On protection, I’d like to see 2021 first-round draft choose Owen Pickering take a couple of huge steps ahead and change into an on a regular basis participant. I might say the potential for that’s solely 20% although, so Pittsburgh will want a stopgap.
If you’ve learn my earlier articles, you realize my respect for Dylan DeMelo’s defensive recreation and talent to anchor a prime pairing (to the purpose the place I ought to point out him in each article, just because). However, with an expiring wage cap hit of $3 million and his recreation nonetheless at its peak, I don’t see him being reasonably priced. A $3 million-$4 million cap hit for a third-pair defenseman is the type of luxurious the staff ought to fortunately quit in return for including Matthews.
Trying to mission how defensemen will age is a idiot’s errand, nevertheless, we’re having enjoyable right here, so let’s attempt. Christopher Tanev was as soon as thought-about a top-pair defenseman, anchoring D-units for each the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. Now, on the age of 33 and on the decline, the once-physical beast is a clear second-pair d-man with no offensive upside. Tanev shall be coming off a $4.5 million contract signed with the Flames in the autumn of 2020. With one other 12 months, a little extra decline, and the chance to play on a professional Stanley Cup contender, Tanev needs to be reasonably priced at round $2 million to anchor the third pairing. This would additionally contain buying and selling Jan Rutta (in a package deal with Matt Nieto) to a staff in want of skilled depth for a draft choose. Quite merely, Tanev is a large improve on Rutta.
The third line has spots obtainable on each wings. It could be wonderful to signal Tom Wilson for half of his present contract ($5,166,667). There’s additionally no approach he’s coming to Pittsburgh, and admittedly, they’ll’t afford him at even half that contract. GMs even have to fret that somebody who performs his type and has already had an ACL rebuilt falls off the Milan Lucic cliff and is immediately a fourth line/replacement-level participant at 30 or 31.
One intriguing participant is the speedy former first-rounder, Kasperi Kapanen.
Everyone in Pittsburgh lights up their pitchforks…
Excuse me, what I meant to say is…
(In my greatest David Stern voice, as a result of he was higher than Gary Bettman)
There has been a commerce.
I’m sticking to the Ty Smith for Trent Frederic commerce from a earlier Roster Rebuild. The distinction that you simply’ll see in Frederic’s wage post-trade vs a earlier article is solely accounting for his projected manufacturing this 12 months being that of a robust third-line participant. Smith’s offense may additionally imply groups see him as having extra upside than a middle-six participant like Frederic.
That covers one wing and leaves one open on the third line. In inspecting reasonably priced gamers who may match on a successful staff, this comes down to 2 key gamers from this previous 12 months’s Stanley Cup finals.
William Carrier vs Nick Cousins
This is an interesting situation. While not make-or-break by itself, that is the type of signing that may both propel a staff ahead or lavatory them down. William Carrier brings a lot of physicality, whereas Nick Cousins brings the Swiss military knife nature that coaches love. While I really like bodily gamers in the underside six, a few of Carrier’s superior numbers are trending in the improper path whereas others have clearly been inflated by his staff. Be it a dangerous season, or somebody who’s breaking down as a consequence of their type, it’s not a danger I’d take with somebody like Cousins obtainable. For me, it’s Cousins in the tip. He could be insurance coverage in case Lars Eller immediately will get previous, and he may also transfer into the highest six when wanted. Carrier can also be redundant, because of the presence of each Noel Acciari and our subsequent signing.
For the fourth-line opening, Sammy Blais is my goal right here. Blais is reasonably priced, coming off a $1 million deal and having rebuilt his profession final season after being traded from the New York Rangers again to the St. Louis Blues. As a former Stanley Cup winner, Blais brings tons of feistiness and sufficient scoring contact to be a constructive on a successful staff’s fourth line.
The Karlsson Conundrum
The buzz round Erik Karlsson coming to Pittsburgh is palpable. Everywhere you flip, somebody is speaking about it. Karlsson himself admitted final week that he has spoken on to 4 groups, together with the Pens.
Related: Pittsburgh Penguins Really Don’t Need Erik Karlsson
I’ve talked about earlier than that I’m not a fan of buying and selling for Karlsson. Bringing in anybody with an $11.5 million cap hit would restrict the staff’s capability to carry in prime younger(er) gamers, such because the multitude who’re doubtlessly obtainable subsequent summer season. If you had the choice of buying and selling for 4 years of a defenseman who’s going on 34 and shall be 37 on the finish of the contract or signing prime younger gamers comparable to one in all Matthews, William Nylander (coming off a 40-goal common season and at all times a playoff beast), Devon Toews (maybe probably the most underrated defenseman in the NHL), Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele (I do know, however there are individuals who assume he can nonetheless pull it collectively), Brandon Montour, and (in the event you’re not Pittsburgh) Connor Hellebuyck, which possibility would you select? That is a monstrous group of bladed beasts, stars, and superstars and a straightforward determination for anybody each the short- and long-term prosperity of your staff.
The Penguins Roster
A real Stanley Cup contender has two robust ahead strains, a third line that may each rating and play protection, and a fourth line that may do the identical with a little extra grit.
The Penguins, with the ageless Crosby and Matthews anchoring their top-two strains, would have two professional first strains who can play 200 toes. Malkin is now protected by transferring to the wing. The third line has the guile, grit, and scoring capability that any contender is trying for. The fourth line is a buzzsaw, with each Acciari and Blais who can hit, rating, play protection, and get underneath their opponent’s pores and skin, together with Drew O’Connor, who’s able to that recreation, and – you’ll hope – could be energized by enjoying with two gamers of this ilk. Marc Johnstone is right here as a placeholder as an example the 21-man roster.
If Kris Letang can proceed to keep away from getting older and keep wholesome, Pittsburgh’s protection is fairly robust. Not 2023 Vegas Golden Knights-strong, although definitely as robust because the Pens’ 2017 Stanley Cup-winning protection. Who is aware of, perhaps Petry might be dealt on the deadline if he’s utterly misplaced it. If so, they’ll carry in a top-pair defenseman with that cap house and additional strengthen the group.
As it’s now not the Nineteen Eighties and 90s, goalies are voodoo. That stated, Jarry may be very proficient, and I wager he’ll be ultra-motivated behind this group.
Bottom line: If Matthews might be the most effective participant on the ice, this model of the Penguins will carry another Stanley Cup house to the Steel City.
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