Predicting the El Clasico Supercopa final: Barca or Madrid?

Real Madrid play Barcelona in the Spanish Supercopa closing on Sunday, giving the competitors the climactic El Clasico conflict its new “final four” format was designed to showcase.

It’s the first time since 2020 — when the Supercopa was expanded and moved to Saudi Arabia — that the closing will fulfil the event’s authentic objective of pitting the reigning LaLiga champions, Barcelona, towards final season’s Copa del Rey winners, Real Madrid.

It’s additionally a repeat of final yr’s Supercopa closing, when a one-sided Clásico contest led to a 3-1 Barca win, setting them up for a triumphant second half of the season, which ended with the league title.

– Stream Supercopa on ESPN+: Barca vs. Real Madrid (Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Real Madrid reached this closing with an exhilarating 5-3 further time win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, earlier than Barca certified with a extra discreet 2-0 victory over Osasuna a day later.

Now the two giants go head-to-head on Sunday at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh with the first trophy of the Spanish season at stake.

Why Real Madrid will win

Clásicos are notoriously unpredictable. Form and circumstances are forgotten when the whistle blows. The end result feels virtually solely unrelated to context.

What’s extra, each groups have gamers adequate to remodel a recreation single-handed, rendering irrelevant what’s gone earlier than. Just have a look at current conferences between these two.

Barcelona had been utterly, overwhelmingly dominant when the groups final met on Oct. 28 in LaLiga. Until, with simply over an hour performed, Jude Bellingham turned the recreation at Montjuic on its head with a wide ranging objective out of nowhere — after which a late, dramatic winner — to present Madrid the three factors.

Remember the final Clásico in a cup competitors: the Copa del Rey semifinal second leg at Camp Nou in April 2023, which Madrid gained at a canter, 4-0, simply as Barca had been getting ready to carry the league title. Or their final Supercopa assembly in Riyadh, three months earlier, when Barca cruised to a 3-1 victory.

In different phrases, both group is greater than able to successful Sunday, so every part we are saying needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Still, there are many causes for Madridistas to be optimistic.

Wednesday’s gripping 5-3 win over Atletico — wherein Real twice fought again from a objective down, to finally emerge victorious in further time — was extra proof that this group would not know when it is crushed. Serial winners like Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal may write the ebook on what it takes to carry trophies.

Madrid have not misplaced since September. This is a well-balanced group that appears harmful in assault, and — regardless of the proof to the opposite in the three objectives conceded towards Atleti — is usually strong in defence, conceding 11 objectives in 19 LaLiga video games this season.

Another relentless competitor, Antonio Rüdiger, is in the finest type of his time at Madrid. Carvajal was the semifinal’s MVP. Federico Valverde is having a quietly distinctive season in a extra withdrawn midfield position. Then there’s the objective menace and big-game persona of Bellingham.

Madrid’s squad can be reassuringly deep. On Wednesday, coach Carlo Ancelotti was capable of name on Kroos, Eduardo Camavinga, Brahim Díaz, Joselu, Dani Ceballos and Arda Güler off the bench to assist get the group over the line in further time. Diaz, particularly, has been in electrical kind in current weeks, forcing his approach into Ancelotti’s plans and providing the group one thing totally different in assault.

The largest doubt — and maybe the group’s Achilles heel — is available in objective. Kepa Arrizabalaga began on Wednesday and was unconvincing as soon as once more, exhibiting a well-known lack of conviction in coming off his line to fail to cope with Atletico’s third objective. The suspicion is that Ancelotti now prefers Andriy Lunin and has given Kepa minutes on this month’s cup competitions to maintain his confidence up.

If repeated, it is a resolution which may price the group, when finals are so typically determined by high quality margins. — Alex Kirkland

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What does Barcelona want to alter to beat Real Madrid?

Luis Garcia reacts to Barcelona’s 2-0 victory vs. Osasuna and previews the Supercopa de España closing vs. Real Madrid.

Why Barcelona will win

Barcelona supervisor Xavi Hernández says final season’s Supercopa success, full with the win over Madrid in the closing, gave his gamers the perception they wanted to go on and win LaLiga for the first time since 2019. He is hoping for the same “click” in Riyadh on Sunday to quieten the criticism that has accompanied Barça in current months.

That criticism peaked in December when a two-game winless run noticed Barça slip seven factors behind LaLiga leaders Madrid and Girona. The complaints lengthen past simply outcomes, although, and deal with the performances produced even when successful. Before Thursday’s 2-0 win over Osasuna, Barça had not gained a recreation by greater than a objective since Sept. 19, a run spanning 20 matches, and had not saved a clear sheet since Dec. 3.

With these streaks over, Barça, who’ve now gained 4 consecutive matches in all competitions, will method the Clásico with a few of their confidence restored.

Pedri’s return from damage helps. The midfielder got here on for the closing half-hour towards Osasuna, coinciding with an upturn in Barça’s show. Xavi mentioned the Spain worldwide provides “clarity” to the group’s soccer, whereas midfielder Frenkie de Jong famous Barça are “more fluid” when he’s on the pitch.

The temptation will probably be to start out Pedri on Sunday, though some warning should even be utilized given his current damage historical past. He has solely been match to start out eight video games this season.

However, Pedri’s significance to the system might override any vigilance, with Xavi highlighting Barça’s “DNA and methodology” as the largest causes to consider they’ll emerge victorious this weekend.

“We have to take the ball from Madrid and our DNA must shine through more than ever,” he mentioned in a information convention on Thursday. “The example is last year’s final. Madrid are in better form than they were then, but we will try to dominate them and play toe-to-toe. It’s the ideal moment for us to show our best football.”

Those are qualities Xavi typically preaches however different attributes led to final yr’s LaLiga title, which was constructed on a strong defensive base. That has been misplaced this season, with Barça already conceding extra objectives by means of 19 LaLiga video games than they did in 38 final yr, however a return to final season’s again 4 introduced a clear sheet towards Osasuna. With full-back João Cancelo a doubt to face Madrid, they could stick with that recipe of Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen and Alejandro Balde.

A hamstring damage picked up by Raphinha towards Osasuna might lead Xavi again to choosing 4 midfielders, too, which was the tactic deployed in final season’s closing. Pedri may return alongside De Jong, Ilkay Gündogan and Sergi Roberto to offer management in the center and keep away from an end-to-end recreation that may probably favour Madrid. It would additionally reserve João Felix and Lamine Yamal for the second half after each gamers made such a huge impact off the bench towards Osasuna. — Sam Marsden

Supercopa closing predictions

Kirkland: Real Madrid 2-1 Barçelona. Bellingham — who else? — will rating the successful objective and carry his first trophy with the membership.

Marsden: Barçelona 3-1 Real Madrid. It’s the previous cliche however kind actually does fly out the window in a Clásico, with the less-fancied group typically prevailing. I feel Barça’s want for an enormous win may get them over the line on Sunday, simply because it did final yr.