Clasico 2023: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predictions, picks

Saturday is a special occasion in LaLiga as we get our first Clasico of the 2023-24 season as Barcelona host everlasting rivals Real Madrid. These video games are at all times massive occasions — that is their 255th official assembly, with Real Madrid edging the sequence with 102 wins to Barca’s 100 and 52 attracts — and it’s extremely a lot true heading into their conflict at Montjuic.

Even although the sport will happen at Olympic Stadium on account of renovations at Barça’s Camp Nou dwelling, the ambiance can be each bit as electrical. The dwelling facet will want that in an effort to prevail. Not solely are Carlo Ancelotti’s Real facet high of the desk after 10 video games, with Barça only a level behind them, however Los Blancos have been dominant in latest conferences, beating Barcelona 4-0 within the Copa del Rey semifinal, second leg and successful three of their final 4 away video games in opposition to Xavi’s facet.

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That mentioned, Barça are reigning LaLiga champions and can be hoping to rebalance the rivalry this weekend. So how will the 2 groups fare on Saturday? What sort of kind is every crew in? Are there good bets to make? Who would be the key gamers that impression the ultimate outcome? And who do our specialists assume will win?

What’s new because the final Clasico, and the way have these groups progressed since

The spoils had been shared final season, however Barça will really feel they edged it by beating Madrid within the Spanish Super Cup closing and once more at Camp Nou on their solution to the 2022-23 LaLiga title. Madrid, who had gained final season’s league assembly on the Santiago Bernabeu, responded with a thumping 4-1 mixture win within the semifinal of the Copa del Rey. However, there have been adjustments on either side of the divide since.

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Xavi: Barcelona can be at 100% for El Clasico

Barcelona boss Xavi says his facet are in fine condition for Saturday’s conflict with Real Madrid after their 2-1 win vs. Shakhtar Donetsk within the Champions League.

Madrid’s talisman Karim Benzema left for the Saudi Pro League, so Carlo Ancelotti has re-built round Vinicius Jr. and €100 million signing Jude Bellingham, who has made a scintillating begin to his profession on the membership. Elsewhere, Ancelotti is beginning to part out veteran midfielder Luka Modric, whereas Fran García, Joselu and Kepa Arrizabalaga additionally arrived in the summertime. The latter changed goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois who, like Eder Milito, is sidelined with a long-term ACL damage.

Meanwhile, Barça try to evolve beneath Xavi Hernandez. A strong backline gained them LaLiga this season, however Xavi needs to enhance the assault. João Cancelo, João Félix and Ilkay Gündogan all joined this summer season in an effort to assist with that goal; veteran midfielder Oriol Romeu and defender Iñigo Martínez additionally signed in the summertime as Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and Ousmane Dembélé (amongst others) departed. An unbeaten begin to the season has adopted, albeit with ups and downs alongside the best way, and so they go into Saturday’s sport only a level behind LaLiga leaders Madrid. — Sam Marsden

How have Barca and Real Madrid seemed to date this season?

Real Madrid go into this Clasico on the high of the desk, with eight wins, a draw — Saturday’s 1-1 at Sevilla — and only one defeat to date, though that loss, 3-1 to Atletico within the Madrid Derby, stung. They have the most effective defensive file in LaLiga, conceding seven objectives in 10 video games, however scoring is a priority. Girona, Atletico Madrid and Barca all have extra objectives than Madrid’s 21. They’ve over-relied on Jude Bellingham’s over-performance (with eight objectives) and whereas Joselu has delivered (with 5) neither Vinícius Júnior (two, after a month out by means of damage) or Rodrygo Goes (one) have accomplished sufficient.

Bellingham has been LaLiga’s strongest participant this season, with these eight objectives coming from 22 photographs and an xG (Expected Goals) of 4.05, however Rodrygo has been its most profligate, with one purpose from 34 photographs and an xG of three.88.

Barcelona are the one unbeaten crew in LaLiga, however their file has been marred by three pointless attracts: 0-0 at Getafe, 2-2 at Mallorca and 2-2 at Granada. Both 2-2s had been characterised by obvious defensive errors, whereas goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen’s decline from final season’s superhuman kind to “mere mortal” has additionally contributed. His Goals Prevented — which subtracts the variety of objectives conceded from the variety of objectives he’d be anticipated to concede — is at -0.01. Basically, he is solely saving what he ought to, nothing extra.

Five of Barca’s seven league wins have include slim one-goal margins, together with their final two, 1-0s v Sevilla and Athletic Club. Hit exhausting by accidents, new arrivals Joao Felix and Joao Cancelo have been essential as have children Lamine Yamal and most lately, because of his match-winner in opposition to Athletic, Marc Guiu. — Alex Kirkland

Ancelotti vs. Xavi: Comparing, contrasting their teaching types and the way it may play out on Saturday

They’re eons aside by way of age and expertise, however the pair are eternally linked by the truth that each males possess the extraordinary energy to persuade and encourage. Okay, additionally they share the truth that their careers had been spent in all-time nice midfields — Ancelotti as extra of an organiser and prompter with Roma and Milan, Xavi a beautiful orchestra-conductor with among the finest passing ranges in historical past. But within the trendy period, an age the place high coaches really must get beneath the pores and skin and perceive the psyches of their celebrity gamers, “Carletto” and Xavi are blessed with heat, great communicative powers and a fascination for constructing.

To some extent, and with out overdoing it, the fashion of soccer every coach promotes tells slightly bit about how they had been as gamers.

Ancelotti was gifted, sensible and profitable: make no mistake about that. But he was pragmatic too, typically charged with guaranteeing that the legendary gamers round him excelled.

Xavi, each the participant and the coach, wasn’t solely an evangelist for a really particular fashion of soccer — he was/is one thing of an “ultra.” To him, it is We play this manner, and no different means, and I’m by no means altering. It’s one thing that, given Barcelona’s terrible damage issues, may cost a little him on this Clásico. They may want a sensible method, reasonably than a daring one, to compete with this model of Madrid, however he’ll stick with his ideas.

Please observe that there is excessive respect and affection between the 2; they’re each what you may name “gentlemen.” Does that imply that it is inconceivable that they get tense, noisy and agitated on Saturday? No, by no means. But as soon as the mud settles, they will nonetheless be from an elite group: soccer’s good guys. — Graham Hunter

Are Barcelona’s accidents going to be an excessive amount of to beat?

When Barcelona scored the successful purpose in opposition to Athletic on Sunday evening, the gamers celebrating within the stands had been larger names than those celebrating down on the pitch. Frenkie de Jong, Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, Pedri and Jules Kounde had been all up there, collectively leaving an enormous hole within the crew down there.

Three days later, when Barcelona confronted Shakhtar Donetsk within the Champions League, they did so with solely 14 first-team gamers accessible. The hope stays that a few of these — Lewandowski and De Jong the most certainly — can be accessible by the point the Clasico comes round. But then, let’s return to the beginning: when Barcelona scored the successful purpose in opposition to Athletic on Sunday evening.

That evening, Marc Guiu scored the winner. Aged 17, making his first-team debut, he had been on the pitch for 33 seconds. Against Shakhtar, the excellent performer was Fermin Lopez, one other child from the academy.

The fact is that groups have a tendency to show to youth after they have issues; though Barcelona is a bit completely different, that is even the case there. The excellent news for the membership is that they so typically appear to reply. Made in La Masia, the phrase goes, and what’s made there may be good. This is the membership, in fact, that crammed a complete Ballon d’Or podium with homegrown gamers: Iniesta, Xavi and Messi.

Of course, that is to not say that these youngsters are pretty much as good, or nonetheless much less that Barcelona can be unconcerned if they don’t get a few of their high gamers again in time for Saturday’s kick off. Madrid, in any case are a special proposition, Barcelona have struggled to get going with out De Jong, Oriol Romeu particularly, and Lewandowski’s presence is important in a sport like this. But if Guiu and Lopez have been goalscorers within the final two video games, teenager Lamine Yamal has additionally been a sensation — ok that Raphinha’s place is not assured even when he is match. Alejandro Balde is now a daily.

And they do at the very least have one veteran chief accessible: 19-year-old midfielder Gavi. — Sid Lowe

Who would be the key participant to tip this contest in some way?

Ilkay Gundogan. In phrases of headlines, the Germán midfielder has made a low-key begin to his Barcelona profession. But with accidents to Pedri and De Jong, the accountability in midfield has been thrust upon him, and he has loads of big-game expertise. No Barça participant has created extra probabilities (21) in LaLiga this season, and Gundogan can be tasked with discovering the areas in Madrid’s half. — Sam Marsden

The apparent reply is Bellingham, and I’m positive others may have picked him … so for selection’s sake, how about Vinicius Junior? He hasn’t hit the heights of the previous two seasons, however after a month again from damage, he is proven indicators — in opposition to Napoli and Osasuna particularly — of being near his greatest. Madrid’s left-hand facet with Vinícius and Bellingham — the latter has been drifting left in latest video games, each out and in of possession — may very well be decisive. They’ll love attacking the area behind Barça defender Joao Cancelo when he will get ahead. — Alex Kirkland

I do not purchase the concept there’s one key man in a Clasico. These video games typically have a few of Newton’s Third Law of Motion in them: in different phrases, for every nice efficiency, there’s virtually at all times an equal and reverse nightmare show. So, whereas it is apparent that Bellingham’s kind places him ahead as Madrid’s key man, what about Vinicius? Xavi will rely closely on Cancelo and Ronald Araújo to shackle them. Whichever of these pairs of gamers dominate is the place you will discover the proverbial “key man.” On paper it is the Englishman, however Araujo is fairly particular. I’m saying Bellingham or Araujo. — Graham Hunter

Fermín López. The teenager gives lots of combat in the course of the pitch, in addition to a capability to get into the field and contribute. He may very well be the surprising hero in a sport filled with superstars. He scored a superb purpose in opposition to Madrid within the Clásico performed in Dallas over the summer season, and he’ll be extra-motivated for his first aggressive assembly in opposition to Los Blancos as a result of he is been a Barça fan all his life. — Moises Llorens

Jude Bellingham would be the key, for numerous causes. First, as a result of he’ll be accountable for assuaging a few of the strain on Rodrygo and Vinicius to attain in such an essential Clasico. Second, his kind would naturally intimidate any opponent and third, his energy of character is overwhelming — the place higher than Montjuic to stake his declare to being the participant of the season? Bellingham’s assertive play can be very important in retaining Romeu busy within the Barca midfield and unlock his two Brazilian teammates, who each head into Saturday’s sport with one thing to show. — Rodrigo Faez

Betting picks

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Barcelona cruised to the LaLiga title final season, successful by 10 factors over second-place Real Madrid regardless of underlying numbers that had been a lot nearer than that. Through 10 video games this season Real Madrid are atop LaLiga, one level forward of third-place Barcelona, although Barcelona’s underlying numbers are higher to date.

However, the largest on-field storyline for this sport is accidents. Barcelona had solely 12 first-team gamers accessible for Wednesday’s Champions League sport, and so they seemingly will not have Robert Lewandowski, Frenkie de Jong or Pedri (amongst others) for El Clasico. Without these playmakers, it is exhausting to see Barcelona piling up scoring alternatives.

Joao Felix has been fairly good this season, with three objectives and three assists, however Real Madrid’s protection has been strong, conceding the third-worst photographs in LaLiga to date. I like Barcelona beneath 1.5 objectives at -125.

Real Madrid clearly aren’t intimidated by enjoying at Camp Nou, successful three of their final 4 league conferences there, and 5 of the final seven total. Manager Ancelotti has seen all the things in all places, and he is gained half of his league video games vs Barcelona since rejoining Madrid two years in the past. Given all that have and pedigree, I’m taking Real Madrid to win and a pair of+ whole objectives, which Caesars has +225.

With Barcelona’s well being points, Real Madrid is solely higher proper now, and 27 of the final 30 league Clasicos have had a number of objectives. — Paul Carr

Prediction time! Who will win on Saturday?

Barcelona 2-1 Real Madrid. Either I’m actually unhealthy at predictions, or latest Clásicos have defied logic. On that foundation, regardless of a prolonged checklist of accidents, I’m tipping Barça to edge it. Bellingham will get his purpose, however Xavi’s facet will benefit from their dwelling benefit. — Sam Marsden

Barcelona 1-3 Real Madrid. It’s a tricky one to name; the groups met 5 occasions final season, with Barça successful three of them, however I’m reminded of the best way Madrid damage Barca on the break of their 4-0 Copa del Rey win at Camp Nou in April. Barça may dominate possession, however the tempo of Vinicius, Rodrygo, Fede Valverde and Bellingham may do critical injury on the counterattack. — Alex Kirkland

Madrid will win. Barcelona, beneath Xavi, have the higher Clasico file in latest months. But whichever facet is in higher bodily situation will get an enormous benefit in imposing their high quality extra efficiently. Los Blancos have higher momentum, fewer issues and that 4-0 thrashing of Barcelona at Camp Nou final time they visited (within the Copa). — Graham Hunter

Barcelona 1-1 Real Madrid. With Barça’s lengthy damage checklist — it is price noting that even when they get some gamers again, they are going to be out of match rhythm — Madrid are favourites because of their energy and stability in midfield. However, Barça have dwelling benefit, which makes a draw appears cheap. — Moises Llorens

Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid. Neither defence is as robust as in different seasons, given the gamers lacking, so I believe each groups will rating. Taking under consideration the tiredness of Champions League motion in midweek, each can be comparable by way of energy, however I believe Madrid are a superior crew bodily. A sport like that might go in favour of the guests if Los Blancos are capable of impose themselves early and keep their high-scoring kind. — Rodrigo Faez