Erik Ten Hag’s long road ahead at Manchester United

On FA Cup ultimate day — additionally a Manchester derby day — it is unimaginable to not evaluate the blue half with the purple half. Yin to yang. And certain, there are many vantage factors from which to do it.

One membership (Manchester City) have highly regarded house owners who’re below investigation by the Premier League for breaching monetary guidelines; the opposite (Manchester United) have very unpopular house owners who’ve put the membership up on the market, however could find yourself simply loading extra debt on the steadiness sheet. One membership received the Premier League in 5 of the previous six seasons; the opposite have not received one since earlier than the discharge of the iPhone 6. One membership strengthened by bringing in a tall center-forward named Erling Haaland; the opposite by bringing in a tall center-forward named … Wout Weghorst.

There’s no query that Man United need to be the place Man City are actually (when it comes to outcomes, not investigations for cooking books). And sure, they’re attempting. They have the next wage invoice than City, they outspent City (in web phrases) in three of the previous 4 years — in reality, since summer season 2018, their web spend has been greater than double City’s. They modified chief executives final summer season, they lastly appointed their first ever director of soccer (welcome to 1998!) and introduced in a supervisor, Erik ten Hag, whom most followers are genuinely enthusiastic about. Possibly as a result of he isn’t a throwback try to recapture left over stardust from the Sir Alex Ferguson Era or a pugnacious fast repair.

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In his first season, Ten Hag guided United to 3rd place, received the League Cup and got here inside 14 factors of the highest of the desk, which, extremely, is nearer than United have come to first place than any yr since 2013, bar one. And, after all, he acquired them to this FA Cup ultimate.

More than the outcomes, he has executed very effectively — effectively, he far surpassed my expectations, anyway — in two different key points of the job.

First, he instilled self-discipline and confirmed glorious man-management abilities internally, whether or not it was navigating Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence (and his departure) or Marcus Rashford’s contract negotiation (he is set to change into a free agent in June 2024, but that did not cease Ten Hag from punishing him for being late to a gathering or coaxing his best-ever goal-scoring season out of him). These aren’t issues to take with no consideration once you make the step up from Ajax — the place most of your fees are children or membership lifers, and in contrast to United, you’ve a powerful, seen and vocal membership management backing you up — to Old Trafford.

Second, he managed the bumps alongside the best way with aplomb, deploying the type of public messaging that usually resonated with followers. United began the second with back-to-back defeats, acquired hammered 7-0 by Liverpool and tossed up one other stinker in getting eradicated by Sevilla within the Europa League semifinal, but Ten Hag prevented quite a lot of the criticism a few of his predecessors would have confronted in these circumstances. For a man who did not seem notably charismatic when he took over, he once more went above and past.

But then there’s the precise soccer on the pitch, which, you presume, is the explanation United employed him within the first place. And right here it is hanging how completely different this United workforce is from his Ajax facet.

If you assume — and I believe it is a protected assumption to make — United employed him as a result of they wished to duplicate at Old Trafford what he inbuilt Amsterdam, we’re a long, long method away from that.

In reality, evaluating Ten Hag’s 2021-22 Dutch champions with this season’s United underscores simply how long the road ahead is perhaps. But it additionally illustrates what United can change into.

I selected the 2021-22 facet and never, say, the 2018-19 workforce that reached the Champions League semifinals and did the home double (the one with Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, and many others.) as a result of that was a facet Ten Hag largely inherited, whereas the 2021-22 model is one he constructed after 3½ seasons at the membership.

It’s not shocking that his Ajax workforce scored extra targets (2.88 a sport to 1.52 a sport) and recorded the next xG (2.48 to 1.51) than United. Some of it, little doubt, is that Ajax have been one of the best workforce in Europe’s sixth- or seventh-best league, whereas United should compete within the Premier League towards more durable opposition. But there are different indicators that stand out. Ajax had the Eredivisie’s highest possession numbers (66%). You’d count on United to be decrease (and it’s) however you would not essentially count on it to be a paltry 54%, behind golf equipment similar to Brighton and Chelsea. That speaks to type of play and supervisor directions as a lot as something.

Our resident analytics guru Ryan O’Hanlon pointed me to a different revealing distinction I would not have considered: common purpose kick distance. Ajax, unsurprisingly, have been first with 29.5 yards, United have been sixteenth, with 48.2 yards. That suggests Ajax prefer to construct from the again, whereas United tended to have goalkeeper David De Gea kick it long. And as O’Hanlon defined, that is one stat that reveals a preset tactic and is much less depending on what the opposition are doing.

Two different numbers soar out at you. One is defensive distance, which measures how far up the pitch, on common, every workforce makes a profitable defensive motion. Ajax, with their excessive defensive position, topped the Eredivisie at 48.02, United have been 14th within the Premier League, at 42.38. The different is opposition passes per defensive motion (PPDA), which is the variety of passes you permit your opponent to make earlier than there is a defensive motion like a sort out, interception or foul. It’s a measure of how intense your urgent off the ball is. Ajax have been first within the Eredivisie with 5.37 PPDA, whereas United have been ninth within the Premier League at 10.07.

None of because of this Ajax 2021-22 have been higher than United 2022-23 (they most likely weren’t, as a result of United has higher gamers). It does nevertheless affirm that the “eye test” of anybody who watched each groups performs will inform you: These groups look nothing alike, and if you happen to did not know higher, you’d wrestle to imagine they have been coached by the identical man.

Which brings us again to Ten Hag and the place he needs to take this workforce. If you assume Ajax 2021-22 is how he needs to play, how did we find yourself with Manchester United 2022-23? There are a number of, evident causes.

For starters, it was his first marketing campaign. It takes time to instill and form your imaginative and prescient on to a workforce. Ask Jurgen Klopp. He took over a Liverpool facet in tenth place in October 2015 and by the top of the season had gotten all of them the best way to … eighth place. Lest we neglect, Pep Guardiola — sure, that Pep Guardiola — additionally completed third in his first season at Manchester City, and in contrast to Ten Hag, he had the advantage of a gaggle that had received the league twice within the earlier 5 years. Plus, he had confirmed high-quality executives within the entrance workplace who shared his imaginative and prescient. And, effectively, he is Guardiola and Ten Hag is not.

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Second, there’s an evident personnel subject. That entire build-up play from deep factor? You can do it you probably have a goalkeeper who is nice along with his toes in addition to his arms. Ten Hag’s keeper is David De Gea, who could also be a wonderful shot-stopper however will not be mistaken for a “sweeper-keeper’ anytime soon. It’s a similar story with the pressing numbers. It’s simply harder to pull off with players who are unaccustomed or unsuited to doing it, and in the likes of Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Rashford, those are the players he had.

Of course, pressing isn’t just about the front men; it’s about the midfielders’ ability to react, read the triggers and plug the holes. Again, Casemiro arrived late and from a side, Real Madrid, that rarely pressed. Christian Eriksen, for all his industriousness and intelligence, is 31 and coming off major heart surgery. Fred and Scott McTominay? Well…

You can see it in Ten Hag’s recruitment. He signed Lisandro Martinez and Antony, two members of that Ajax team. Christian Eriksen came into play the Davy Klaassen role, Casemiro to impersonate Edson Alvarez (both, obviously, at a much higher level). Weghorst was perhaps meant to be some sort Sebastien Haller, with Marcel Sabitzer as an off-brand Ryan Gravenberch. But that’s only part of the team, and while it’s great to get guys who fit your system, it’s also good to get guys who are actually good enough players at this level (and some of the above have not been).

Third, and probably most necessary, this can be a completely different context. This is the Premier League. It’s not only a competitors with higher groups and higher gamers; it is also one thing of a training Mecca, and United is likely one of the plushest jobs. Foreign coaches (and lots of British ones) do not get the advantage of the doubt for long, not simply when it comes to media and fan response, however with the gamers, too. For higher or worse, it is one of many quirks of this island nation. Even Guardiola, along with his three Champions League titles, was doubted and put by the wringer in his first season. And he was Guardiola. Ten Hag was simply one other bald Dutch man who had by no means labored as a head coach in a Big Five league.

In different phrases, he needed to churn out outcomes and to a point, that meant sacrificing imaginative and prescient and training for wins. Giving the ball for Bruno Fernandes and ready for him to do one thing is not a philosophy, however typically it is the best choice. The identical applies to sitting deeper, not conceding silly targets and hoping {that a} through-ball finds Rashford. But the outcomes — and his man-management — helped give him credibility and authority, and people are what he must construct going ahead.

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You assume he is below no illusions. Sure, ending third within the Premier League is nice and all, however it was additionally the yr wherein Chelsea and Tottenham imploded with three completely different managers and the yr Liverpool did not get going till March (they have been tenth in February). As for the cup runs, the hardest workforce they really beat within the league cup have been Newcastle within the ultimate, and within the FA Cup it was Fulham (at dwelling).

Ten Hag can solely go thus far enjoying this type of soccer, and he is aware of it. It’s not what he needs to be doing and it isn’t what acquired him the job. He wants time on the coaching pitch, and he wants the precise type of recruitment to ship the gamers suited to the soccer he needs.

The excellent news is that his 2022-23 season has received him time and that his man-management has received him authority and credibility. Now he must ship on the remainder.