Man United haven’t challenged City, but a derby is different

Pep Guardiola has normally tried to stay respectful when speaking about neighbours Manchester United throughout his time as Manchester City supervisor, but earlier this season the masks slipped simply a fraction.

When requested about attainable Premier League title rivals this season, he listed Arsenal after which Liverpool earlier than being interrupted by a reporter who stated: Manchester United? The smirk that crept throughout Guardiola’s face on the suggestion gave the sport away. The uncomfortable reality for United is that Guardiola’s response is justified.

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In his seven full seasons on the Etihad Stadium, he is gained 5 titles and one other eight main trophies. Last season alone he gained the identical quantity (three) as United have managed in whole since he arrived in England in 2016. Guardiola has confronted challenges from Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea, but they’ve not often come from United.

Speaking at his first City information convention greater than seven years in the past, Guardiola instructed supporters to “fasten your seat belts” but it was onerous to think about then simply how far they’ve raced in entrance of their rivals.

Erik ten Hag is the most recent United supervisor tasked with making up the bottom but forward of the primary Manchester derby of the season at Old Trafford on Sunday, the hole between the 2 groups feels as huge as ever.

At a information convention on Friday, Guardiola was requested about United as attainable title contenders and, as common, he tried to be courteous. “It’s too early,” he stated. “All the time when you get the fixtures [in June], United are a contender. When you play just nine games, many things can happen from my experience. We have been behind with a few points in February and March and have been able to win at the end. Ask me a question with nine games left. The teams that are a little bit behind [now] can be there.”

But in the event you imagine the bookmakers, United aren’t even shut. City are favourites to win a file fourth title in a row this season, whereas United, who’ve misplaced 4 of their first 9 video games, are seventh within the betting behind Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle and Aston Villa.

As he prepares for Sunday’s derby, the excellent news for Ten Hag is that United have a respectable file towards Guardiola, successful seven of 19 conferences in all competitions, but the head-to-head file would not inform the story of City’s total dominance.

Since Guardiola arrived, United have by no means completed forward of City within the Premier League and twice (in 2018-19 and 2021-22) completed greater than 30 factors behind. Across seven years since 2016, United have completed a median of 20 factors behind their neighbours domestically, whereas in Europe, they’ve gained one Champions League knockout tie (towards Paris Saint-Germain in 2019) to City’s 12.

City have reached at the very least semifinals of the Champions League in every of the previous three seasons. United, in the meantime, haven’t been previous the quarterfinals for greater than a decade. In his “fasten your seatbelts” information convention on his first day as City supervisor, Guardiola was requested thrice in regards to the issue of getting a big soccer membership simply a few miles up the highway but, whether or not he needs to confess it or not, he is barely needed to give United a second thought since.

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A yr into his job, Ten Hag believes they’re beginning to shut the hole. They beat City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Barcelona final season but the issue, the Dutch supervisor says, is discovering the consistency that Guardiola has managed to domesticate.

“In this moment we are six points back so we have to catch up,” Ten Hag stated on Friday. “We are in the right direction and we have a way to go.” The fear for United followers is that their membership has not often bought it proper off the pitch, so they’re unlikely to problem on it.

City have run into their very own issues and are nonetheless combating greater than 100 expenses associated to breaches of the Premier League’s monetary guidelines but their recruitment of gamers over the previous decade has been largely profitable whereas United’s switch coverage has usually bordered on chaos. United’s internet spend on transfers since 2014 stands at $1.48 billion, whereas City’s is $916 million. It’s not that City have spent more cash, it is simply that they’ve executed it higher.

As United confirmed with a 2-1 win in January, all that goes out of the window in a derby and regardless of a poor begin to the season, Ten Hag will really feel that a City group which have misplaced three of their previous six video games and haven’t stored a clear sheet for greater than a month have vulnerabilities he can exploit.

The greater success, nonetheless, could be closing the hole for extra than simply a one-off recreation and at last wiping the smile off Guardiola’s face.