Penguins’ Crosby & Malkin Both Have Shot at 100 Points

During each NHL offseason, the try to provide you with dialogue subjects inevitably results in hyperbole being thrown out into the world. This is as a result of these subjects are usually enjoyable to speak about. One of these is whether or not Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin can attain 100 factors once more this season… or ought to I say one ultimate time?

In this courageous and fancy new world, we’ve methods to look at gamers’ previous outputs to determine what’s most probably to occur this season. We’re going to make use of a few these as we speak, and my editor guarantees we’ll preserve this attention-grabbing.

Time for the Stats

Starting with the normal, listed below are Crosby and Malkin’s boxcar stats and factors per recreation common over the earlier three seasons:

1.22 is the magic quantity with factors per recreation, as at that fee, one would rating 100 factors in an 82-game season. In the previous three seasons, solely Crosby has as soon as scored at a 100-point tempo, with Malkin scoring at some extent per recreation these previous two seasons.

As the highest two facilities on the staff, each Crosby and Malkin will likely be afforded loads of ice time each at even energy and on the primary energy play unit.

Keeping this primarily to the previous three years to look at the newest information, right here is the typical time on ice per recreation (ATOI) for Crosby and Malkin in that timeframe:

2020-21

Crosby: 20:24, Malkin: 17:44

2021-22

Crosby: 19:58, Malkin: 18:20

2022-23

Crosby: 20:09, Malkin: 18:35

The ATOI has been constant, with every taking part in just about the identical quantity as their earlier seasons these previous three seasons, with Crosby taking part in clear first-line minutes and Malkin taking part in clear second-line minutes. Malkin’s place on the highest energy play unit ought to present extra alternative to place up factors. To that finish:

2022-23 Power Play Production

Crosby: 9 targets, 18 assists, 27 factors

Malkin: 11 targets, 25 assists, 36 factors

Related: Pittsburgh Penguins Scouting Report: What to Watch for This Year

We’re solely utilizing final season for the ability play as a wide range of points (pandemic, accidents) restrict the worth of the earlier years. As I famous lately, Malkin continues to be an offensive wizard with nearly as good of palms as anybody within the recreation. These numbers shouldn’t be a shock and present somebody who can nonetheless produce elite offense and offensive numbers. For what it’s price, Crosby scored three fewer energy play factors in 13 extra video games than the earlier season, and his energy play level per recreation manufacturing has been largely flat over the previous 4. With the person benefit, he’s who he’s.

Points Per 60

Points/60 is a straightforward sufficient stat, monitoring what number of factors somebody scores over 60 minutes. Sometimes it’s used for instance the offensive prowess of bottom-six gamers (former Penguin Daniel Sprong was a standout final season on this regard, with 3.07 factors/60 at even energy in a fourth-line position with the Seattle Kraken). Here, we are going to use it to see if there may be any age-related drop-off in Sid and Geno’s offensive manufacturing at even energy.

Sidney Crosby                                  

(*100*)

Evgeni Malkin

What’s good to see is there appears to be no age-related drop in any way. Crosby’s factors/60 have increased in every of the previous two seasons, and Malkin’s have stayed remarkably consistent, additional proof of their otherworldly work ethics and skillsets. They’re champions for a motive.

So, what does this imply? Well, as you might have heard, Connor McDavid obliterated each goalie and their youngsters’s youngsters final season to the tune of 153 factors in 82 video games. Looking at his factors/60 at even energy, McDavid’s superhero cape is aware of no bounds, with 3.15 factors/60 minutes in opposition to high checking strains and the highest defensemen on the planet. At the bottom finish of the 100-point membership final season was somebody that nobody in Pittsburgh has heard of, a fella by the title of Erik Karlsson. He had a 2.48 factors/60 final season. From that perspective, at even energy, it’s protected to say that each Crosby and Malkin are nonetheless in vary of the magic mark.

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Speaking of our era’s Paul Coffey…

The Karlsson Effect

While I initially wasn’t an enormous fan of going after him, Erik Karlsson is now right here, and it’s not a foul factor. Karlsson had a Hall of Fame-stamping, Norris Trophy-winning season for the ages in 2022-23, placing up 101 factors on a staff that had 4 legit top-six forwards and a bunch of men who would’ve solely been top-six of their native beer leagues. I believe 120 factors is absolutely the ground for what final season’s Karlsson might have placed on the scoresheet with Pittsburgh.

At even energy, Crosby usually performs with Kris Letang, and Malkin was taking part in extra with Jeff Petry. Karlsson is a monumental improve on Petry, and having each Letang and Karlsson accessible to play with both middle implies that opposing coaches must select their destiny and put their top-checking gamers out in opposition to both the Crosby/Letang or Malkin/Karlsson strains. On the defensive aspect, the elevated puck possession that Karlsson will convey over Petry will imply extra offense and higher defensive metrics for Malkin and his line.

There’s no simple resolution right here, as Karlsson on 1.5 ankles is best offensively than simply about everybody else who has two full ankles. Yes, he didn’t produce properly when he performed with Brent Burns in San Jose, two right-shot D who strongly lean towards the offensive aspect of the drive. However, how a lot of that was teaching/programs, an growing old ahead group, Karlsson’s ankle nonetheless therapeutic, and off-ice points?

While all of those gamers are getting older, Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson didn’t present it of their manufacturing final season. At even energy, Pittsburgh’s high two strains ought to be way more harmful this season.

There’s Only One Puck to Go Around

The problem right here will likely be on the ability play. You learn and hearken to folks within the Pittsburgh space (shoutout to the Locked On Penguins podcast) and so they each count on Crosby to hit 100 factors, and for each Karlsson and Letang to play on the highest energy play unit.

Going into my summer time scouting, I puzzled if this energy play evaluation could be right, or if there could be extra talent on the offensive aspect than Letang would convey (as Karlsson would be the PP QB). With all due respect to Bryan Rust (who skates like I solely dreamed of doing as a teenager) and Jake Guentzel, Letang is extra expert than all however three Pens’ forwards (Malkin, Crosby, and Rickard Rakell). From that perspective, Letang ought to be on the primary PP unit.

The problem for the teaching workers will likely be, how do they unfold out three right-handed shooters? Rakell is greatest sneaking into the precise aspect of the slot which is nice for Crosby or Malkin feeding him from down low on a Sneaky Pete launch play. For the 2 defensemen, do they merely put them on the purpose, and if that’s the case, who’s on what aspect? Or, do they put certainly one of them (Karlsson?) on the left aspect of the purpose and Letang at the left half-wall for one-timers or to feed down low to Crosby/Malkin? Or…Or…There are so many choices.

What this energy play unit loses is its net-front presence. Does that imply they must put certainly one of Rust or Guentzel on it to go get banged up all season?

The Age/Playoff Factor

Do you assume, for one world warming second, that head coach Mike Sullivan cares, at all, within the least, even somewhat bit whether or not Crosby and Malkin hit triple-digits this season? Trust me, he doesn’t. The 35-pound silver chalice they’re all chasing come the spring is all he cares about. If meaning reducing minutes this season to make sure that his older roster is contemporary for the playoffs, don’t be stunned, which might in fact reduce their possibilities of placing up nice particular person numbers, and probably enhance Pittsburgh’s possibilities of successful when it issues probably the most.

Prediction Time

In the spirit of full transparency, as somebody who witnessed the falloff of Wayne Gretzky from a factors perspective (he might nonetheless play in that final season, and if he had wingers who might have completed, I firmly imagine he would have scored 100 factors), I’ve it ingrained that round age 35, the 100-point barrier turns into an not possible wall to climb. When I began this text, my conclusion was going to be that neither participant would hit 100 factors ever once more, not to mention this season. However, when wanting at the three-year patterns, the metrics, and contemplating the addition of Karlsson (and subtraction of “Heavy Tacks” Petry), together with potential teaching methods, I’ve modified my thoughts on one participant.

Malkin: 32 targets, 59 assists, 91 factors
Crosby: 38 targets, 65 assists, 103 factors

Barring any even minor damage to Pittsburgh’s new Big Four, Crosby, if he performs at least 80 video games, will break the 100-point barrier…one ultimate time.