The race for five places in next season’s Champions League

So wins aren’t price extra in the Champions League?

No, the coefficient system is designed to evaluate the general power of leagues. Wins are the identical in all competitions, in any other case it could be inconceivable for these leagues with few or no groups in the UCL group stage to maneuver up the coefficient rating.

The bonus factors serve two functions: firstly, to offer weight to the power of the competitions on a sliding scale, and second to offer factors to these groups collaborating in the UCL who may get few optimistic outcomes.

In reality, it could possibly be argued that it is higher for leagues to have some groups drop down into the UEL for the knockout rounds. Bonus factors is likely to be decrease in the UEL, however every two-legged tie has five factors up for grabs (4 for the consequence and one for progressing to the next spherical). If a group stays in the UCL, they won’t get previous the spherical of 16 and have little probability of including to the nation’s coefficient by means of wins.

Won’t this simply turn into further places for two prime leagues?

If we glance again on the earlier five seasons, England and Spain take seven of the ten slots, with Italy and Germany one every. Only in 2021-22 did one of many international locations with fewer than 4 groups in the Champions League (the Netherlands) end in the highest two of common coefficient.

So sure, historical past tells us that it is extremely doubtless two of the highest leagues can have five places in next season’s Champions League.

2022-23: England and Italy
2021-22: England and the Netherlands
2020-21: England and Spain
2019-20: Spain and Germany
2018-19: England and Spain

Right, so who’s in competition this season?

This is the highest 10 as of Feb. 20.

1. Italy, 15.000
2. Germany, 14.071
3. England, 13.875
4. Spain, 12.937
5. France, 12.250
6. Czechia, 12.000
7. Belgium, 11.800
8. Turkey, 11.000
9. Netherlands, 9.200
10. Denmark, 8.500

There’s barely something between Italy, England and Germany whereas Spain definitely can’t be dominated out.

Could Czechia or Belgium produce a shock and gatecrash the highest two? And we have to discuss France…

But one factor is for positive, the ultimate desk is not going to look the identical on the finish of the desk. Any nation that has a number of groups run deep is prone to get a top-two slot.

Why the knockout playoff spherical is so necessary in February

A quirk of the coefficient system is that outcomes in the knockout playoff spherical, primarily the spherical of 32, of the UEL and UECL add factors to the nationwide affiliation rating, however not a membership’s. So outcomes depend in the races to be one of many two prime leagues.

While there are larger bonus factors for profitable a gaggle in comparison with ending second, the runners-up are able to including extra factors total than the group winners by advancing from the knockout playoff spherical.

For occasion, the UEL group winners get 4 bonus factors, and the runners-up get two bonus factors. But the runners-up play in the knockout playoff spherical with a further 4 factors accessible by means of the outcomes of every leg, in the event that they win each matches.

E.G. West Ham received 4 factors for profitable their UEL group, with SC Freiburg getting two for being second. If Freiburg have been to win each legs in the knockout playoff spherical, the full add to the coefficient could possibly be six factors in comparison with West Ham’s 4.

It means leagues with a number of golf equipment in the knockout playoff spherical can add to their rating. Remember, we have to discuss France …

The unhealthy information for the Premier League? All its groups in the UEL and UECL received their group, which implies the league can not choose up any factors from these competitions in February. England will doubtless be in a worse place as we transfer into March.

OK, so what is the state of play for the leagues?

A league must maintain as many groups as potential nonetheless energetic deep into the knockout rounds. The fewer groups in European competitors, the much less probability there may be to attain coefficient factors to compete for the highest two.

Results shall be more durable to come back by with the fixtures changing into more and more troublesome.

It’s much more necessary for England and Spain, who began with eight groups in Europe; every win is price barely much less to the coefficient (because the rating is split by eight quite than seven for Germany and Italy.)

1. ITALY, 15.000

Internazionale, Lazio and Napoli are in the UCL spherical of 16, however the draw did not look too promising for the trio, having been unseeded. While Lazio received 1-0 at residence to Bayern Munich in the primary leg, the Bundesliga aspect will nonetheless be favourites to undergo on residence turf. Inter additionally secured a 1-0 residence win over Atletico Madrid, whereas Napoli tackle Barcelona on Wednesday.

AC Milan dropped into the UEL, the place they beat Stade Rennais 3-0 in the primary leg of the knockout playoff spherical, whereas AS Roma are taking over Feyenoord and drew the primary leg in the Netherlands 1-1.

Atalanta and Fiorentina topped their group and don’t play in February.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 5
Taking half in the knockout playoff spherical: 2
Out: 0

Serie A has all seven golf equipment by means of, however with such a troublesome UCL draw, it is extremely unlikely to be intact heading into the quarterfinals. However, Milan and Roma look prone to undergo in the UEL which makes Italy sturdy favourites proper now.

Knockout playoff spherical: Milan and Roma might enhance Italy’s place, with a complete of 0.85 coefficient factors accessible to the nationwide affiliation rating from the second legs.

2. GERMANY, 14.071

Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig went by means of in the UCL. Bayern (misplaced 1-0 away to Lazio) and Dortmund (drew 1-1 at PSV) could each progress, however Leipzig have been drawn towards Real Madrid and misplaced the primary leg at residence.

SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in Lens in the UEL, with Eintracht Frankfurt drawing 1-1 with Union St.-Gilloise in the primary leg of their UECL tie.

Bayer Leverkusen are straight by means of to the spherical of 16 of the UEL so do not play in February.

Union Berlin have been eradicated from Europe on the backside of their UCL group.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 4
Taking half in the knockout playoff spherical: 2
Out: 1

The Bundesliga has six of its seven golf equipment nonetheless in European competitors, although having three groups in the Champions League may truly be a unfavorable in the long run.

Knockout playoff spherical: Two German golf equipment will participate in the knockout playoff spherical. A complete of 0.71 coefficient factors could possibly be added to the typical from the second legs.

3. ENGLAND, 13.875

Arsenal and Manchester City went by means of as group winners in the UCL, and shall be favourites to advance towards FC Porto and FC Copenhagen respectively. Man City added to the coefficient rating with their first-leg win in Denmark.

Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool and West Ham United are all by means of to the UEL spherical of 16, as are Aston Villa in the UECL.

Manchester United and Newcastle United have been knocked out after ending backside of their UCL teams.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 6
Out: 2

The Premier League is in third place after two of its groups failed in the Champions League. It makes it a lot more durable to make the highest two — however deep runs from a number of groups would nonetheless give the league an opportunity.

Knockout playoff spherical: The Premier League has no groups in the knockout playoff spherical, so it can not rating any coefficient factors and is due to this fact set to be in a worse place after February’s video games as different leagues choose up outcomes and bonus factors.

4. SPAIN, 12.937

Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad proceed in the UCL. Real Madrid shall be anticipated to advance towards RB Leipzig after profitable the primary leg 1-0 in Germany, however it’s not so clear after that. Atletico misplaced 1-0 away to Inter, with Real Sociedad additionally crushed 1-0 away to Paris Saint-Germain. Barca then meet Napoli on Wednesday. LaLiga shall be lucky to flee unscathed from these ties.

Real Betis dropped into the UECL, the place they misplaced 1-0 at residence to Dinamo Zagreb in the knockout playoff spherical.

Villarreal do not play once more in the UEL till March.

Osasuna did not qualify for the UECL, whereas Sevilla have been knockout out in the UCL.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 5
Taking half in the knockout playoff spherical: 1
Out: 2

Even although LaLiga has 4 groups by means of in the Champions League, Osasuna’s failure in UECL qualifying has severely affected its hopes of constructing the highest two.

The lack of Sevilla, who completed backside of their UCL group, can be damaging, whereas Real Betis have been crushed in the primary leg of their UECL tie.

That stated, Spain has six golf equipment nonetheless in motion, which implies it can’t be dominated out. But the likes of Atletico, Barca and Real Sociedad are going to should shrug off some less-than-inspiring home type.

Knockout playoff spherical: Spain can have one membership, Real Betis, in the knockout playoff spherical with the coefficient common in a position to enhance by a most of simply 0.25 factors.

5. FRANCE, 12.250

Paris Saint-Germain went by means of in the UCL, and beat Real Sociedad 1-0 in the primary leg of the round-of-16 tie.

Lens dropped into the UEL knockout playoff spherical, the place they drew the primary leg at residence to Freiburg 0-0.

Marseille (vs. Shakhtar Donetsk, first leg 2-2), Stade Rennais (vs. AC Milan, misplaced the primary leg 3-0) and Toulouse (vs. Benfica, misplaced 1-0) can even be in the knockout playoff spherical of the UEL.

In the UECL, Lille are straight by means of to the spherical of 16.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 2
Taking half in the knockout playoff spherical: 4
Out: 0

The knockout playoff spherical was a land of alternative but in addition worry for Ligue 1. It might have all six golf equipment by means of to spherical of 16, or be left with simply two. Not considered one of its 4 groups received, with Stade Rennais struggling a heavy loss in Milan.

Knockout playoff spherical: If France does maintain most or all of its golf equipment in Europe, it is going to be proper in the combination for an additional UCL place — although that appears powerful now. The league might add a most of two.00 factors to the typical from the second legs.

5. CZECHIA, 12.000

Sparta Prague are taking over Galatasaray in the knockout playoff spherical of the UEL, however misplaced the primary leg in Turkey 3-2.

Slavia Prague are straight by means of to the UEL spherical of 16, as are Viktoria Plzen in UECL.

Bohemians did not qualify.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 2
Taking half in the playoff spherical: 1
Out: 1

The shock league to seem in the race for the additional Champions League places, particularly as solely three groups made the group phases.

With simply 4 groups in Europe, wins for Czechia’s golf equipment are price 0.5 coefficient factors to the typical, in comparison with 0.25 for England and Spain. A profitable group stage has put them in competition, however the league could be very a lot the outsider with so few groups left.

Knockout playoff spherical: Czechia has one group in the knockout playoff spherical, with Sparta Prague in a position to enhance the typical by 0.60 from the second leg.

7. BELGIUM, 11.800

In the UECL knockout playoff spherical, Union St.-Gilloise drew the primary leg with Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2, whereas Gent misplaced 1-0 away to Maccabi Haifa.

Club Brugge are straight by means of to the UECL spherical of 16.

Antwerp completed backside of their UCL group and are out, whereas Genk have been eradicated from the UECL.

Taking half in the spherical of 16: 1
Taking half in the knockout playoff spherical: 2
Out: 2

With simply three of their five groups left, and just one sure to be in the spherical of 16, like Czechia, it could be an enormous shock if Belgium mounted a critical problem. Both Union St.-Gilloise and Gent should undergo in the UECL, and they’re up towards it.

Knockout playoff spherical: A complete of 0.80 coefficient factors could possibly be added.

What to look out for this month

Champions League

With 4 groups nonetheless in competition, Spain could make an actual dent. Its groups face rivals from Italy (Inter Milan vs. Atletico Madrid, Napoli vs. Barcelona), France (Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad) and Germany (RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid), all having the second leg at residence.

Germany’s three groups tackle the Netherlands (PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund), Italy (Lazio vs. Bayern Munich) and Spain, so two probabilities to knockout out the competitors.

Italy has three groups left, however all should be away from residence in the second leg towards opposition from Spain and Germany.

England, in the meantime, faces groups from Portugal (FC Porto vs. Arsenal) and Denmark (FC Copenhagen vs Man City), no direct battle.

It’s the 4 ties involving groups from Germany, Italy and Spain which is able to show essential. It might be that England’s two groups undergo whereas rival leagues knock one another’s groups out. The Premier League’s power could come from the opposite head-to-heads.

Europa League

AC Milan towards Stade Rennais shall be necessary, as Italy might harm France’s hopes of a late run; likewise Lens vs. SC Freiburg for Germany. France’s different two groups in the spherical face opposition from Portugal (Benfica vs. Toulouse) and Ukraine (Shakhtar vs. Marseille).

Czechia’s Sparta Prague have drawn Turkish membership Galatasaray.

Belgium, England and Spain haven’t any group in the knockout playoff spherical — so the necessary video games are these two matchups between Italy and France, and France and Germany.

Europa Conference League

Only one head-to-head tie as Eintracht Frankfurt tackle Union St.-Gilloise of Belgium, which might finish the latter league’s slim hopes. Gent, Belgium’s different remaining membership, meet Maccabi Haifa.

For Spain, Real Betis have been drawn towards Dinamo Zagreb.

Czechia, England, France and Italy haven’t any group in the knockout playoff spherical.

What to look out for in the round-of-16 attracts

The draw for the next stage of the UEL and UECL, to be performed in March, takes place on Friday.

Country safety stays, which implies groups from the identical league can not face one another.

So as soon as once more it is the important thing head-to-head ties between the highest leagues which might show essential.

When we transfer into the quarterfinals, groups from the identical nation will be drawn collectively — which might show detrimental as one membership is assured to be eradicated.

When will we discover out who will get the additional places?

In many seasons it could be apparent in March, as soon as we all know which leagues have groups by means of to the quarterfinals of the three European competitions.

However, the 2019-20 season exhibits that it may well go proper right down to the wire. Germany did not overtake the Premier League for second place till Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the ultimate of the Champions League. If that is repeated this season, we would not know which league will get the second extra spot till the UCL remaining takes place June 1.

It would depart two golf equipment in the home leagues praying for the suitable consequence in the ultimate. In 2019-20, Bayer Leverkusen and Leicester City completed fifth in Germany and England respectively. Leverkusen would have wanted Bayern to win the UCL remaining to get the place, whereas Leicester required Bayern to lose the match.

We might additionally hypothetically see a state of affairs the place, for occasion, Arsenal profitable the Champions League might hand fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur a spot in the Champions League.

What’s the utmost variety of places in the UCL and in Europe?

Under the previous system, a most of five golf equipment from one affiliation might play in the Champions League. It meant that in the unlikely occasion groups from the identical league received the Champions League and Europa League, but each completed outdoors the UCL places domestically, then fourth must give up their place and drop into the UEL.

But from 2024-25 it is going to be potential for seven Premier League groups to get a spot in the UCL: The prime 4, fifth by means of league efficiency in Europe, and the winners of the UCL and the UEL.

It would additionally technically be potential to have 11 Premier League groups in Europe: The normal allocation of seven, plus the additional Champions League place and the titleholders of all three European competitions (in the event that they completed outdoors a European place.) UEFA has but to take a choice on a most quantity in Europe from one affiliation, although sources have indicated that it could be capped at 10 if this not possible situation happens, with a spot in the UEL taken away.

Who will get the additional place?

If we assume the additional spots will go to one of many prime leagues, it means fifth place will enter the Champions League and it’ll have eight (quite than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a spot.

If the Premier League will get it, the entry shall be:

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: Carabao Cup winners

If the cup winners end in the highest 6, the European places might drop to seventh and eighth in the desk.

If LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A will get it, the entry shall be:

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 7

If a group wins the UEL however would not qualify for the UCL domestically, that league might have six places in the UCL — the five places to the leagues plus the UEL titleholders as a further.

Which groups would profit proper now?

Right now, RB Leipzig are fifth in the Bundesliga, with Bologna holding that spot in Serie A.