Why Arsenal will win the Premier League (and why they won’t)

The Premier League title race is about to get actual for Arsenal. For the first time since Arsene Wenger’s “Invincibles” received the membership’s final title in 2003-04, Arsenal really feel like a group that may go all the manner and take the trophy to the Emirates. But supervisor Mikel Arteta’s aspect have solely accomplished the simple half to date.

Make no mistake: to be 5 factors clear at the high of desk, having suffered only one defeat in 14 video games, is a real achievement for Arteta and his younger group. Arsenal should be main the race as the Premier League resumes after six-week pause for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, however their spectacular begin to the season is now simply cash in the financial institution. We are about to see how far it will take them.

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Since the Premier League started in 1992-93, there have been 30 accomplished seasons and the group that sits high on Christmas Day simply has the edge. Sixteen groups have been high at Christmas and ended up as champions, with 14 golf equipment failing to go the distance. Arsenal have been second to Manchester United on Christmas Day 2003 and went on to be champions.

It is a barely skewed traditionally statistic this time round, with Arsenal solely having performed 14 video games because of the World Cup shutdown. By now, groups have often performed 17 video games, so it’s maybe unfair to burden Arteta’s group with the strain of getting to dwell as much as the “Christmas leaders” tag. But by beginning so nicely and sustaining their type, Arsenal are unquestionably in the title race.

Reigning champions Manchester City are nonetheless the favourites with each bookmaker, regardless of being 5 factors adrift of the leaders, but Pep Guardiola’s group will have little margin for error if Arsenal proceed as they left off. This is the problem for Arsenal, nonetheless, and the image is not fairly as clear because it was when they wrapped up for the World Cup with a 2-0 win at Wolves in mid-November.

The largest concern for Arteta will be the lack of striker Gabriel Jesus, who could possibly be sidelined for as much as 4 months with a medial ligament damage he suffered with Brazil at the World Cup. The 25-year-old has scored 5 objectives for the Gunners since his £45 million switch from Man City in the summer time and whereas his strike charge might not be massively spectacular, it’s his contribution as a group participant and the successful mentality he has introduced from his time at the Etihad that make him so necessary to Arteta’s group.

Without Jesus, Arsenal need to discover a approach to make their ahead line perform simply as nicely — and that will not be simple.

How defender Ben White performs after leaving England’s World Cup squad early for private causes will be one other key query for Arteta. White’s versatility and consistency, each at full-back and centre-back, have been essential this season, so Arsenal will want him to return to the type that earned him that call-up for Qatar.

On the flipside, winger Bukayo Saka had an excellent World Cup with England, and fellow extensive attacker Gabriel Martinelli is reportedly near signing a contract extension at the Emirates after getting back from the World Cup with Brazil. So amid the issues, there have been positives for Arteta to construct on.

The Arsenal supervisor is aware of {that a} powerful interval lies forward, although. With extra gamers than another membership — 9 — having registered greater than 1,000 Premier League minutes this season, fatigue may change into an element as Arsenal (and each different group) begin to play catch-up in league and cup play following Qatar 2022.

“We are going to be playing every three days,” Arteta stated. “The congestion and the amount of games we have to play is going to be incredible. We are going to have to have more resources and more players to be able to do that.

“We have the confidence we’re on the proper path, however as nicely, we’ve got the crimson lights and alarms, as a result of what’s coming in the second half of the season is one thing unprecedented. And we must be prepared for it.”

Arsenal’s run of fixtures between now and the return of European soccer in mid-February will give us a transparent indication as as to whether they can maintain their title bid or will fall by the wayside, with serial winners City benefiting from the depth and expertise of their squad to overtake the Gunners.

A house recreation in opposition to West Ham on Monday is the begin of the tough run, adopted by a tough journey to Brighton and the go to of in-form Newcastle on Jan. 3. And in the area of a month, after an FA Cup third-round journey to Oxford United, Arsenal should play Tottenham (away), Manchester United (dwelling) and Manchester City ( dwelling), so it’s definitely a testing interval forward for Arteta and his gamers.

Some title winners — Leicester (2016), Blackburn (1995) — have began nicely and harnessed a wave of momentum all the approach to the finish of the season, however many others have run out of steam. We’re about to search out out which class Arsenal will fall into this season.